Current Scale

• Pakistan ~5th most populous country in the world; ~241 million (2023 census provisional)
• Growth rate ~2.55% (highest in South Asia) — India, Bangladesh both under 1.5%
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR) ~3.6 children/woman (still well above replacement rate of 2.1)
• Youth bulge — ~64% of population under age 30; median age ~20

Causes

• Low female literacy & limited access to family planning/contraceptives (CPR ~34%, one of lowest in region)
• Early marriages, cultural/religious misconceptions equating family planning with sin
• Weak implementation of population policies — devolved to provinces post-18th Amendment, inconsistent execution
• Preference for male child, large family as social security/labor asset in rural economy
• Poverty-illiteracy-population cycle (self-reinforcing)

Consequences

• Strain on resources: water availability per capita fallen from ~5,000 m³ (1950s) to ~900 m³ (water-stressed threshold)
• Unemployment & underemployment — labor market cannot absorb ~2 million new entrants/year
• Pressure on health, education, housing infrastructure; urban slums, katchi abadis
• Undermines per capita GDP growth despite aggregate GDP growth (dilution effect)
• Food security risk — agricultural land shrinking due to urban sprawl while population rises

Government Response

• Population Welfare Programme (est. 1965) — chronically underfunded, target-missing
• Council of Common Interests (CCI) declared population a national security issue (2021)